Miracle in Solano: California Forever unites Democrats and Republicans
The point: The California Forever project appears headed for a massive defeat in November. But the billionaires behind the proposed "tech utopia" have managed to pull off a true political miracle in 2024: uniting Democrats and Republicans – against their project. I got a sneak peak at more detailed polling data. In all of my years in politics, I've rarely seen anything poll this badly (besides Mayor London Breed, who has a 71 percent disapproval rating).
Poll: California Never
The backstory: Last week, a poll released by opponents of the California Forever project revealed grim news for the new city a group of tech billionaires is trying to force on the people of Solano County. Seventy percent of Solano residents oppose the project, and 61 percent say they will definitely vote "no."
Even worse for the billionaires: Voters who know the most about the project are the most opposed to it. The kicker: Arguments in support of the project appear to be wholly ineffective at changing any minds. The "no" votes are hard no.
This is a catastrophic dynamic for any campaign. Barring some kind of unprecedented and and unlikely turnaround of epic proportions, California Forever may wind up as California Never.
Tech billionaires in denial?
The twist: I posted some of the publicly available poll data on Twitter last weekend – and got an unexpected response.
"Gotta hand it to California Forever," I wrote. "In a country more partisan and polarized than ever, they appear to have found a way to actually unite Democrats and Republicans – against their creepy Network State tech billionaire project."
Much to my surprise, the official California Forever account responded. Someone actually logged into the project's official account on a weekend night to mock the poll, which was commissioned by the Greenbelt Alliance and Solano Together:
M'kay.
A few things:
- FM3 Research, one of the most respected polling firms in the state, conducted the poll. It's utterly delusional to pretend the poll doesn't matter, and anyone with political experience in California knows better.
- If you're going to use a term like "push poll," you oughta know what it actually means.
- If the Greenbelt Alliance is an "outsider group," then what the heck is the unholy group of Bay Area billionaires and Sacramento consultants behind California Forever? (Pro Tip: Don't make an accusation that can be easily reversed on you. If "outsider" = bad, then California Forever = toast.)
- A group like Greenbelt, which has been active in Solano for a long time, has every incentive to want to know how voters truly feel. The poll provides necessary and valuable intelligence to inform the campaign against the project. It would be counterproductive for Greenbelt to commission an inaccurate poll.
- An intern would be too smart to log in on a weekend night and reply to this tweet in such a silly way. This seems like executive-level error. I'm sure someone on the team advised against this. Please don't listen to them, ever!
Republicans and Democrats...unite!
Digging in: I was able to get my hands on a deeper level of the polling data, but I agreed to not get too specific. Here are some broad strokes:
Democrats and Republicans are united in strong opposition. In these highly polarized times, California Forever has pulled off a miracle. They found a way to unite people on both sides of the political spectrum – against their secretive and weird startup city. The same goes for independent voters.
I've spent some time reading through comments in various Solano County community forums, and a widespread disdain for the project seems clear. People who may be completely polarized on other political issues are coming together against the billionaire land grab they see as threat to their community. I hope a political scientist or sociologist is studying the situation, because it may yield some crucial insights about issues that can actually bring Americans together.
But Republicans are SUPER opposed. The poll shows large majorities of Democrats and Republicans opposed to the project. But Republicans are especially opposed, with the number of GOP voters saying "no" the the project several points higher than the number of Democrats saying no.
Every single Solano supervisor district opposes the project. Majorities in each county supervisor district oppose the project, showing that antipathy toward California spans the entire county. There are no geographical hotspots of support.
Voters are united across age, ethnic and racial groups. Voters over the age of 50 are the most opposed, but a majority of voters under 50 are also "no" voters. Strong majorities of both white voters and voters of color oppose the project (white voters have the highest level of opposition).
“Poll results highlight the profound public mistrust of the backers of California Forever,” said Solano Together, a group opposing the project, in a press release. “Flannery Associates’ approach has sowed distrust by deploying secretive tactics, keeping their identity elusive, suing farmers, and misleading the public, government officials, and landowners about their intentions. Trust is a major concern for Solano County voters, and these secretive and duplicitous tactics have contributed to strong opposition to this project.”
Billionaire poll denial
Faced with such dire polling numbers, California Forever has limited options.
They could pull back for now and try a different approach at a later time.
They could plunge ahead with a massive bombardment of ads and pressure, at the risk of facing a most historic humiliation like that suffered by Meg Whitman (who spent $178.5 million to lose the 2010 governor's race to Jerry Brown).
They could dream up some convoluted scheme to try to use the courts or state power to force Solano County to allow them to build their tech dystopia.
Or they could engage in abject denial of reality and pretend that everything is just fine and they are on a glide path to victory. This appears to be the preferred approach.
"Meanwhile, we look forward to submitting in the coming weeks the signatures of tens of thousands of Solano residents who are excited about the future of the county and who are looking forward to casting their votes this November," wrote California Forever in a follow-up tweet.
Sure, ok. (Interestingly, they didn't push back on my characterization of their scheme as a Network State project.)
Speaking of signatures, last month California Forever found itself accused of using deceitful tactics to gather the voter signatures required to get the project on the November ballot. From CBS News:
California Forever is back in the hot seat, accused by city and county leaders of deceitfully gathering signatures in their push to get a measure on the November ballot, which the campaign is denying.
The campaign is a billionaire-backed push to create a new city on Solano County farmland near Travis Air Force Base.
The Solano County government put out an alert warning voters that it had, "...received multiple reports of voters being misinformed by circulators collecting signatures either with incorrect information or for a petition to stop the East Solano Homes, Jobs and Clean Energy Initiative," which is also known as the California Forever campaign.
Full story at link below:
Ashley Sharp
California Forever, Never?
Conclusion: Does California Forever have polling data? What does their survey say?
It seems unlikely that California Forever spent $900 million to buy up 60,000 acres but hasn't conducted a poll to determine whether the project will gain voter approval. (California Forever, if you're listening, would love to see any polling data you have and give it a fair hearing.)
To be honest, I expected a much tighter race. But the people of Solano County are not buying what California Forever is selling.
In an interesting coincidence, the tech billionaires' Network State project in Solano County has a 70 percent disapproval rate. This is almost an exact match for the disapproval rating of Mayor Breed, the tech billionaires' preferred candidate in the San Francisco mayor's race.
If getting 70 percent of voters to despise your side was the key to winning in politics, they'd have a remarkable talent for it.
To hear from Solano County voters themselves, check out the Solano Speaks page at California Forever Never.
